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Law, Probability and Risk Advance Access originally published online on May 24, 2007
Law, Probability and Risk 2007 6(1-4):275-293; doi:10.1093/lpr/mgm005
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© The Author [2007]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns of evidence

Amanda B. Hepler{dagger} and A. Philip Dawid

Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK

Valentina Leucari

Nunatac s.r.l., Via Crocefisso 5, 20122 Milano, Italy

{dagger} Email: amandah{at}stats.ucl.ac.uk

Received on 6 March 2007. Revised on 20 March 2007. Accepted on 21 March 2007.


  Abstract

We reconsider two graphical aids to handling complex mixed masses of evidence in a legal case: Wigmore charts and Bayesian networks. Our aim is to forge a synthesis of their best features and to develop this further to overcome remaining limitations. One important consideration is the multilayered nature of a complex case, which can involve direct evidence, ancillary evidence, evidence about ancillary evidence, etc. all of a number of different kinds. If all these features are represented in one diagram, the result can be messy and hard to interpret. In addition, there are often recurrent features and patterns of evidence and evidential relations, e.g. credibility processes or match identification (DNA, eyewitness evidence, etc.), that may appear, in identical or similar form, at many different places within the same network, or within several different networks, and it is wasteful to model all these individually. The recently introduced technology of ‘object-oriented BNs’ suggests a way of dealing with these problems. Any network can itself contain instances of other networks, the details of which can be hidden from view until information on their detailed structure is desired. Moreover, generic networks to represent recurrent patterns of evidence can be constructed once and for all and copied or edited for reuse as needed. We describe the potential of this mode of description to simplify the construction and display of complex legal cases. To facilitate our narrative, the celebrated Sacco and Vanzetti murder case is used to illustrate the various methods discussed.

Keywords: Bayesian network; evidence analysis; graphical representation; object oriented; Sacco and Vanzetti; Wigmore chart

Presented at the workshop on ‘Graphic and visual representations of evidence and inference in legal settings’ at Cardozo School of Law, New York City, 28th–29th January 2007.


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